Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4794 at 13:26 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4794 Republic	ILM 13:26	BOS 15:34	27%	14%	4.8%	no record
B6 1290 JetBlue Flight history →	ILM 14:40	BOS 16:46	40%	25%	1.8%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ILM 05:06 → CLT 06:10AA 2493	2h 42m Charlotte	CLT 08:52 → BOS 11:03AA 1094	5h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:22 → ATL 08:01DL 3187	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862	7h 25m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ILM 17:38 → ATL 19:15DL 1292	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 42m	98%	74%
United Details →	ILM 05:58 → EWR 07:45UA 4384 · flown by GoJet	3h 48m Newark	EWR 11:33 → BOS 13:00UA 1669	7h 02m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	6h 15m	100%	71%
American Details →	ILM 07:23 → CLT 08:33AA 2695	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 10:46 → BOS 12:51AA 1809	5h 28m	89%	71%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:56 → LGA 08:36DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m New York	LGA 11:00 → BOS 12:22DL 5745 · flown by Republic	5h 26m	93%	65%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → BOS 22:20DL 457	7h 52m	97%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ILM 12:09 → ORD 13:37AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 15:02 → BOS 18:24AA 2456	6h 15m	74%	32%
Delta Details →	ILM 15:03 → LGA 16:42DL 5186 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m New York	LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic	4h 37m	67%	30%
Delta Details →	ILM 17:16 → LGA 18:58DL 5212 · flown by Endeavor	1h 00m New York	LGA 19:58 → BOS 21:11DL 5800 · flown by Republic	3h 55m	52%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON