Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4626 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25%.

Safest bet that day AA 4626 IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4707 IND 17:44 → DCA 19:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4626 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	DCA 07:50	6%	2%	1.3%	83%
AA 4352 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 08:10	DCA 09:43	11%	2%	1.1%	84%
OH 5072 PSA	IND 09:48	DCA 11:38	12%	5%	1.9%	no record
MQ 4141 Envoy	IND 15:06	DCA 16:48	21%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 4593 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 20:21	DCA 22:13	25%	9%	1.9%	72%
AA 4707 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:44	DCA 19:44	25%	11%	3.2%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON