Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3567 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 3567 IND 05:56 → EWR 08:03 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 3571 IND 18:55 → EWR 21:10 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3567 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:56	EWR 08:03	4%	1%	2.1%	92%
UA 3451 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:05	EWR 11:11	7%	2%	2.3%	95%
YX 3666 Republic	IND 10:48	EWR 12:55	12%	4%	2.1%	no record
YX 3677 Republic	IND 12:04	EWR 14:25	19%	6%	2.3%	no record
UA 3667 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 16:03	EWR 18:30	29%	15%	5.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 3571 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:55	EWR 21:10	38%	19%	9.8%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON