Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4631 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 4631 IND 07:10 → JFK 09:29 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 4984 IND 17:58 → JFK 19:58 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4631 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:10	JFK 09:29	5%	2%	2.0%	92%
DL 4932 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	IND 07:10	JFK 09:10	10%	3%	2.9%	91%
AA 4592 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:28	JFK 14:49	21%	7%	4.3%	82%
DL 4976 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	IND 12:59	JFK 15:01	23%	6%	4.6%	80%
DL 4984 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	IND 17:58	JFK 19:58	35%	20%	8.0%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON