Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 598 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 598 IND 07:00 → LAX 08:27 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3201 IND 17:43 → LAX 19:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 598 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	LAX 08:27	17%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 861 Delta Flight history →	IND 17:25	LAX 18:45	19%	5%	0.8%	87%
AA 3201 American Flight history →	IND 17:43	LAX 19:12	31%	8%	0.8%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON