Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 2174 at 14:58, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2174 Southwest	IND 14:58	MCI 15:38	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:11 → MCI 13:20DL 2747	7h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38DL 2471	4h 43m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:55 → MCI 11:26DL 1349	5h 26m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	1h 51m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → MCI 14:46DL 2882	7h 51m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	IND 06:55 → DEN 07:43WN 2787	3h 01m Denver	DEN 10:44 → MCI 13:28WN 2512	7h 33m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IND 11:01 → ATL 12:46DL 3125	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MCI 15:10DL 1443	5h 09m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	IND 07:51 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor	3h 22m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	6h 33m	98%	82%
American Details →	IND 08:05 → CLT 09:52AA 346	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 11:43 → MCI 13:19AA 1616	6h 14m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON