Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2308 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2308 American Flight history →	IND 06:00	MIA 08:50	8%	2%	1.0%	92%
AA 2953 American	IND 19:24	MIA 22:10	37%	11%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 02m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	6h 07m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:04 → MIA 13:38DL 793	6h 38m	97%	81%
United Details →	IND 05:30 → ORD 05:57UA 3479 · flown by Republic	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 07:37 → MIA 11:47UA 1358	6h 17m	99%	80%
American Details →	IND 05:49 → CLT 07:28AA 2938	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 10:08 → MIA 12:19AA 2594	6h 30m	98%	79%
American Details →	IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4626 · flown by Republic	1h 32m Washington	DCA 09:22 → MIA 12:01AA 401	6h 01m	99%	79%
United Details →	IND 05:56 → EWR 08:03UA 3567 · flown by Republic	1h 09m Newark	EWR 09:12 → MIA 12:30UA 2785	6h 34m	97%	76%
American Details →	IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35AA 2782	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:07 → MIA 13:07AA 868	7h 06m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 15:14 → ORD 15:41AA 4713 · flown by Republic	47m Chicago	ORD 16:28 → MIA 20:37AA 2553	5h 23m	69%	38%
Delta Details →	IND 14:35 → LGA 16:36DL 5660 · flown by Republic	51m New York	LGA 17:27 → MIA 20:19DL 1620	5h 44m	39%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON