Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4442 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–38%.

Safest bet that day YX 4442 IND 05:33 → ORD 06:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1087 IND 16:51 → ORD 17:11 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4442 Republic	IND 05:33	ORD 06:01	4%	3%	1.5%	no record
UA 3479 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 05:31	ORD 05:59	4%	3%	1.5%	93%
YX 3495 Republic	IND 08:09	ORD 08:37	10%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:37	ORD 07:05	10%	3%	1.5%	73%
UA 3483 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:17	ORD 07:38	14%	4%	1.6%	79%
YX 4562 Republic	IND 11:02	ORD 11:30	15%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 3902 United	IND 08:45	ORD 08:57	17%	6%	1.5%	no record
YX 3561 Republic	IND 11:40	ORD 12:05	18%	8%	1.5%	no record
YX 3300 Republic	IND 11:48	ORD 12:06	19%	8%	1.5%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 15:15	ORD 15:43	23%	15%	1.9%	84%
OO 5287 SkyWest	IND 09:21	ORD 09:44	24%	7%	2.5%	no record
YX 3527 Republic	IND 15:00	ORD 15:28	27%	16%	3.1%	no record
UA 3657 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:43	ORD 19:09	31%	15%	4.6%	76%
AA 3053 American	IND 21:02	ORD 21:25	34%	13%	3.7%	no record
OO 5014 SkyWest	IND 12:42	ORD 13:04	34%	15%	3.0%	no record
UA 2632 United	IND 13:47	ORD 14:05	35%	18%	2.1%	no record
UA 1087 United	IND 16:51	ORD 17:11	38%	18%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON