tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4780 at 14:30, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4780 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → IND 14:30 RDU 16:16 11% 5% 1.2% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → RDU 11:35DL 2052 5h 40m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 5h 47m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 12:34 → RDU 14:03DL 2026 5h 58m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521 6h 51m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IND 07:51 → DTW 09:03DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor 1h 12m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 4h 06m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IND 11:01 → ATL 12:46DL 3125 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 14:09 → RDU 15:38DL 1550 4h 37m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → IND 06:36 → ORD 07:03AA 4557 · flown by Republic 2h 50m Chicago ORD 09:53 → RDU 13:03AA 4354 · flown by Republic 6h 27m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → IND 05:49 → CLT 07:28AA 2938 1h 40m Charlotte CLT 09:08 → RDU 10:11AA 1768 4h 22m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IND 14:35 → LGA 16:36DL 5660 · flown by Republic 47m New York LGA 17:23 → RDU 19:01DL 5101 · flown by Endeavor 4h 26m 30% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON