Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 625 Alaska Flight history →	IND 07:04	SEA 08:52	18%	3%	0.8%	81%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	IND 18:10	SEA 19:50	25%	7%	1.0%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 18m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629	9h 31m	99%	84%
United Details →	IND 09:45 → IAD 11:33UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 39m Dulles	IAD 13:12 → SEA 16:05UA 1824	9h 20m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IND 07:25 → AUS 09:03DL 4015 · flown by SkyWest	1h 18m Austin	AUS 10:21 → SEA 12:39DL 1684	8h 14m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456	1h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → SEA 16:33DL 877	7h 15m	98%	79%
United Details →	IND 05:30 → ORD 05:57UA 3479 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 07:00 → SEA 09:40UA 341	7h 10m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 06:45 → BOS 09:10DL 5631 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Boston	BOS 11:29 → SEA 14:50DL 332	11h 05m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IND 18:27 → SFO 20:23UA 2799	55m San Francisco	SFO 21:18 → SEA 23:36UA 1007	8h 09m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON