Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2200 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2200 ITO 06:00 → HNL 07:11 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1081 ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2200 Southwest	ITO 06:00	HNL 07:11	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2201 Southwest	ITO 08:00	HNL 09:11	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2202 Southwest	ITO 11:40	HNL 12:51	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1001 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 06:00	HNL 06:54	8%	2%	1.5%	93%
WN 2199 Southwest	ITO 15:25	HNL 16:36	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2204 Southwest	ITO 18:55	HNL 20:06	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1011 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 07:35	HNL 08:29	10%	2%	1.3%	91%
AS 1021 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 09:26	HNL 10:20	17%	4%	1.1%	89%
AS 1061 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 14:59	HNL 15:55	18%	4%	1.2%	80%
AS 1121 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 19:28	HNL 20:37	19%	5%	1.2%	75%
AS 1131 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 20:38	HNL 21:47	20%	6%	1.2%	57%
AS 1111 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 18:47	HNL 19:56	20%	4%	1.2%	73%
AS 1101 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 18:18	HNL 19:27	20%	4%	1.2%	77%
AS 1031 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 11:27	HNL 12:22	20%	4%	1.2%	75%
AS 1071 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 15:45	HNL 16:39	21%	4%	1.2%	74%
AS 1051 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 13:59	HNL 14:54	22%	6%	1.1%	70%
AS 1081 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 16:47	HNL 17:40	24%	7%	1.2%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON