Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 1019 at 08:30, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1019 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 08:30	OGG 09:10	9%	2%	0.8%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ITO 15:45 → HNL 16:39AS 1071	2h 52m Honolulu	HNL 19:31 → OGG 20:25AS 1196	4h 40m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	ITO 06:00 → HNL 06:54AS 1001	2h 22m Honolulu	HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:10AS 1056	4h 10m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081	3h 20m Honolulu	HNL 21:00 → OGG 21:54AS 1206	5h 07m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011	2h 30m Honolulu	HNL 10:59 → OGG 11:41AS 1076	4h 06m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	ITO 13:59 → HNL 14:54AS 1051	2h 48m Honolulu	HNL 17:42 → OGG 18:23AS 1176	4h 24m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	ITO 14:59 → HNL 15:55AS 1061	2h 32m Honolulu	HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186	4h 09m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	ITO 11:27 → HNL 12:22AS 1031	3h 38m Honolulu	HNL 16:00 → OGG 16:53AS 1436	5h 26m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	ITO 09:26 → HNL 10:20AS 1021	2h 17m Honolulu	HNL 12:37 → OGG 13:31AS 1096	4h 05m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011	47m Honolulu	HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:10AS 1056	2h 35m	61%	50%
Alaska Details →	ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081	47m Honolulu	HNL 18:27 → OGG 19:08AS 1186	2h 21m	56%	45%
Alaska Details →	ITO 14:59 → HNL 15:55AS 1061	48m Honolulu	HNL 16:43 → OGG 17:24AS 1156	2h 25m	59%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON