Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 12m	96%	78%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	1h 26m Denver	DEN 10:06 → CLT 15:20UA 2231	6h 20m	90%	71%
Delta Details →	JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158	7h 44m	94%	69%
United Details →	JAC 10:46 → DEN 12:17UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	3h 51m Denver	DEN 16:08 → CLT 21:24UA 616	8h 38m	99%	67%
American Details →	JAC 12:56 → DFW 16:41AA 1923	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:00 → CLT 22:36AA 3002	7h 40m	91%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON