tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 1h 27m Denver DEN 10:07 → EWR 15:42UA 2381 6h 42m 90% 65%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 09m 93% 60%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:46 → DEN 12:17UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 43m 99% 51%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:11 → LAX 09:39UA 1431 2h 47m Los Angeles LAX 12:26 → EWR 20:38UA 1855 10h 27m 90% 51%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:22 → DEN 15:54UA 1717 1h 56m Denver DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613 7h 22m 91% 50%
AmericanDetails → JAC 12:56 → DFW 16:41AA 1923 1h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:22 → EWR 23:09AA 2145 8h 13m 86% 50%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 7h 19m 84% 46%
UnitedDetails → JAC 08:00 → ORD 11:53UA 2032 3h 29m Chicago ORD 15:22 → EWR 18:40UA 1236 8h 40m 94% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON