Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	3h 22m Denver	DEN 12:02 → IAH 15:26UA 1599	7h 26m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	3h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → IAH 21:50DL 2514	7h 35m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	JAC 11:28 → SLC 12:38DL 4470 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAH 17:53DL 1299	5h 25m	91%	71%
United Details →	JAC 08:11 → LAX 09:39UA 1431	3h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 13:05 → IAH 18:23UA 1084	9h 12m	90%	68%
United Details →	JAC 10:46 → DEN 12:17UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Denver	DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489	7h 24m	99%	68%
United Details →	JAC 14:22 → DEN 15:54UA 1717	3h 41m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	7h 44m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:21 → IAH 17:33DL 1131	7h 58m	94%	67%
United Details →	JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791	1h 43m Denver	DEN 18:04 → IAH 21:29UA 1055	5h 45m	87%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791	53m Denver	DEN 17:14 → IAH 20:38UA 1587	4h 54m	65%	42%
United Details →	JAC 08:00 → ORD 11:53UA 2032	47m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	6h 40m	47%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON