Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2209 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2209 JAX 06:35 → BNA 07:17 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2212 JAX 20:45 → BNA 21:28 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2209 Southwest	JAX 06:35	BNA 07:17	5%	1%	2.4%	no record
WN 2804 Southwest	JAX 11:00	BNA 11:42	11%	2%	2.0%	no record
WN 2211 Southwest	JAX 16:40	BNA 17:22	22%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2212 Southwest	JAX 20:45	BNA 21:28	24%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON