Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1171 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1171 JAX 06:37 → DFW 08:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1460 JAX 19:46 → DFW 21:32 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1171 American Flight history →	JAX 06:37	DFW 08:17	9%	3%	3.4%	90%
AA 2789 American Flight history →	JAX 09:03	DFW 11:05	12%	5%	1.8%	91%
AA 1061 American Flight history →	JAX 11:51	DFW 13:51	15%	6%	3.3%	80%
AA 687 American Flight history →	JAX 13:55	DFW 15:55	21%	7%	1.0%	61%
AA 1472 American	JAX 17:02	DFW 19:01	26%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 1460 American	JAX 19:46	DFW 21:32	33%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON