Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3924 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 3924 JAX 05:58 → IAD 08:06 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YV 6189 JAX 19:22 → IAD 21:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3924 United	JAX 05:58	IAD 08:06	4%	2%	3.6%	no record
UA 1434 United Flight history →	JAX 09:20	IAD 11:16	8%	3%	1.1%	90%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	JAX 12:27	IAD 14:40	9%	4%	1.5%	93%
YV 6189 Mesa	JAX 19:22	IAD 21:32	18%	9%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON