Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 764 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33%.

Safest bet that day AA 764 JAX 06:59 → ORD 08:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest MQ 4151 JAX 12:36 → ORD 14:14 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 764 American Flight history →	JAX 06:59	ORD 08:46	13%	5%	3.1%	81%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	JAX 09:37	ORD 11:30	17%	9%	1.1%	82%
OO 5258 SkyWest	JAX 07:09	ORD 09:07	21%	6%	3.2%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 17:56	ORD 19:49	33%	12%	1.5%	86%worse than usual
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	33%	18%	1.0%	70%
OO 5401 SkyWest	JAX 12:38	ORD 14:28	38%	17%	4.7%	no record
MQ 4151 Envoy	JAX 12:36	ORD 14:14	40%	15%	3.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON