Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 10:02	HNL 14:40	21%	7%	1.2%	77%
AS 829 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 08:55	HNL 13:49	31%	8%	2.4%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 20m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	14h 19m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	15h 43m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:46 → LAX 16:45DL 701	1h 52m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	13h 36m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:11 → DTW 09:02DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 28m Detroit	DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307	12h 56m	92%	73%
American Details →	JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:58AA 1	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 15:55 → HNL 18:41AA 143	15h 41m	96%	70%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26AA 5	13h 56m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	JFK 12:00 → SEA 14:57DL 1719	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → HNL 19:30DL 419	13h 30m	92%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	52m Phoenix	PHX 10:10 → HNL 14:08AA 693	13h 06m	73%	53%
Delta Details →	JFK 14:52 → LAX 17:51DL 771	46m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	12h 30m	57%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON