Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 4984 at 13:51 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 4984 JFK 13:51 → IND 16:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 4914 JFK 18:20 → IND 20:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4984 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 13:51	IND 16:07	20%	8%	2.6%	81%
DL 4976 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 09:56	IND 12:11	21%	6%	2.0%	86%
YX 4422 Republic	JFK 15:12	IND 17:29	30%	11%	3.7%	no record
YX 4423 Republic	JFK 20:17	IND 22:47	32%	14%	5.2%	no record
DL 4914 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 18:20	IND 20:36	35%	17%	5.3%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON