Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: B6 411 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–39%.

Safest bet that day B6 411 JFK 06:40 → LAS 09:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1211 JFK 16:16 → LAS 18:46 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	12%	3%	1.4%	94%
DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:30	LAS 09:56	16%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	21%	6%	1.2%	82%
AA 1473 American	JFK 07:54	LAS 10:07	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
DL 781 Delta Flight history →	JFK 23:22	LAS 01:35	23%	10%	2.1%	71%
AA 2536 American	JFK 12:59	LAS 15:48	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
B6 511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:13	LAS 12:45	27%	7%	1.7%	84%worse than usual
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAS 19:50	28%	9%	1.7%	82%
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	28%	11%	2.0%	71%
B6 211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:05	LAS 14:39	28%	8%	1.7%	86%worse than usual
AA 2440 American	JFK 18:57	LAS 21:26	36%	13%	4.3%	no record
B6 1411 JetBlue	JFK 22:08	LAS 00:40	39%	14%	3.6%	no record
B6 1211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:16	LAS 18:46	39%	13%	3.0%	83%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:30 → LAS 15:55DL 1672	7h 41m	88%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON