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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 31 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1223 JFK 20:48 → LAX 23:45 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 171 American Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 09:01 12% 3% 1.3% 89%
DL 742 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 LAX 09:55 15% 4% 0.8% 78%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 08:49 16% 3% 1.4% 88%
AA 33 American Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:07 17% 4% 1.1% 90%
DL 1905 Delta JFK 11:04 LAX 14:03 18% 5% 1.0% no record
DL 713 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:00 LAX 10:58 20% 4% 0.9% 78%
AA 3 American Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:58 20% 6% 1.5% 85%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:12 21% 5% 1.1% 83%
AA 1 American Flight history → JFK 09:32 LAX 12:02 21% 6% 1.5% 87%
DL 773 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:54 21% 4% 1.0% 81%
AA 255 American Flight history → JFK 12:41 LAX 15:25 22% 7% 1.4% 81%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 10:59 LAX 14:04 24% 9% 1.4% 72%
DL 701 Delta Flight history → JFK 14:21 LAX 17:07 24% 8% 1.3% 83%
DL 771 Delta Flight history → JFK 14:51 LAX 17:49 25% 9% 1.3% 78%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 09:40 LAX 12:31 25% 7% 1.4% 83%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:30 LAX 11:25 26% 6% 1.3% 81%
DL 707 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:51 LAX 18:48 29% 11% 1.3% 75%
AA 341 American Flight history → JFK 15:08 LAX 18:10 30% 11% 2.0% 77%
DL 747 Delta Flight history → JFK 16:39 LAX 19:28 31% 10% 1.3% 81%worse than usual
DL 738 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:45 LAX 20:42 33% 11% 1.5% 77%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:15 LAX 18:16 34% 16% 2.1% 71%
AA 306 American Flight history → JFK 17:00 LAX 20:19 35% 11% 2.4% 83%worse than usual
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:52 LAX 19:49 35% 16% 2.4% 74%
DL 752 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:20 LAX 23:38 35% 14% 1.6% 73%
DL 1915 Delta JFK 18:54 LAX 21:51 37% 12% 1.8% no record
AA 302 American Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:28 37% 12% 2.9% 76%worse than usual
AA 300 American Flight history → JFK 22:12 LAX 00:49 37% 14% 2.2% 73%worse than usual
AA 117 American Flight history → JFK 19:10 LAX 21:52 40% 13% 2.5% 74%worse than usual
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:14 41% 19% 3.4% 73%worse than usual
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:40 LAX 00:51 42% 22% 2.4% 58%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:48 LAX 23:45 44% 22% 2.4% 54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:51 → IND 16:07DL 4984 · flown by Endeavor 1h 18m Indianapolis IND 17:25 → LAX 18:45DL 861 7h 54m 87% 68%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 46m Atlanta ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827 7h 45m 83% 67%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 1h 21m Phoenix PHX 10:39 → LAX 12:15AA 2027 8h 13m 87% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON