Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5399 at 14:17 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 5399 JFK 14:17 → PWM 15:36 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest B6 308 JFK 22:33 → PWM 00:00 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5399 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 14:17	PWM 15:36	23%	10%	4.5%	76%
DL 5411 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 22:21	PWM 23:43	29%	14%	5.4%	81%worse than usual
B6 308 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:33	PWM 00:00	41%	18%	4.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON