Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via DFW, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:10	SAT 12:24	20%	5%	1.5%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:29 → SAT 13:03DL 1408	8h 03m	99%	81%
American Details →	JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01AA 171	2h 14m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → SAT 16:22AA 6497 · flown by SkyWest	11h 22m	98%	80%
American Details →	JFK 12:41 → LAX 15:25AA 255	3h 29m Los Angeles	LAX 18:54 → SAT 00:00 +1AA 4962 · flown by SkyWest	12h 19m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	1h 34m Boston	BOS 09:00 → SAT 12:24DL 816	7h 24m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009	7h 30m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → SAT 13:36DL 3123	8h 36m	85%	72%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:01 → SAT 12:23AA 413	6h 53m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465	7h 11m	94%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JFK 18:27 → DFW 21:33AA 606	1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599	6h 31m	71%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON