Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5207 at 08:19 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 5207 JFK 08:19 → SAV 10:36 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 5459 JFK 19:05 → SAV 21:24 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5207 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 08:19	SAV 10:36	22%	6%	2.4%	87%
DL 5460 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 14:34	SAV 16:52	26%	13%	4.4%	79%
B6 341 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:32	SAV 12:53	30%	11%	2.8%	59%
DL 5459 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 19:05	SAV 21:24	34%	17%	5.5%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON