Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 892 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 892 JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 71 JFK 19:13 → SLC 22:28 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 892 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SLC 09:03	8%	2%	0.9%	88%
DL 917 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	SLC 14:21	18%	4%	1.0%	83%
DL 887 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:25	SLC 20:22	28%	8%	1.3%	80%
DL 863 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:29	SLC 22:08	32%	11%	1.5%	75%
B6 71 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:13	SLC 22:28	42%	17%	3.2%	73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	JFK 19:01 → ORD 20:43AA 4454 · flown by Republic	54m Chicago	ORD 21:37 → SLC 00:10 +1AA 2545	7h 09m	100%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON