Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	6h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832	7h 13m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 49m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → VPS 16:04DL 2170	6h 04m	95%	76%
American Details →	JFK 17:42 → MIA 20:37AA 2603	2h 33m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	7h 17m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	6h 06m	93%	73%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → VPS 12:29AA 5165 · flown by PSA	5h 30m	90%	72%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → VPS 15:15AA 2501	9h 45m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	JFK 19:32 → ATL 22:03DL 962	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	4h 57m	70%	60%
American Details →	JFK 18:50 → MIA 22:22AA 1174	48m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	6h 09m	49%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON