Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2223 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 2223 KOA 07:58 → HNL 09:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1157 KOA 18:30 → HNL 19:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2223 Southwest	KOA 07:58	HNL 09:02	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2222 Southwest	KOA 05:59	HNL 07:03	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2224 Southwest	KOA 11:40	HNL 12:44	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2225 Southwest	KOA 15:39	HNL 16:43	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1027 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 07:27	HNL 08:28	11%	3%	1.2%	87%
WN 2226 Southwest	KOA 18:59	HNL 20:03	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1017 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 06:00	HNL 06:47	12%	2%	1.2%	94%
AS 1037 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:49	HNL 09:50	18%	3%	1.1%	82%
AS 1117 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:17	HNL 16:18	23%	4%	1.1%	78%
AS 1077 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:46	HNL 12:47	23%	4%	1.1%	78%
AS 1107 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:41	HNL 15:42	23%	5%	1.2%	76%
AS 1057 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:28	HNL 11:29	24%	4%	1.1%	76%
AS 1167 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 19:15	HNL 20:03	25%	4%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
AS 1177 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 20:45	HNL 21:33	26%	5%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
AS 1087 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 12:13	HNL 13:14	27%	5%	1.1%	72%
AS 1127 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 16:33	HNL 17:20	27%	5%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
AS 1097 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 13:26	HNL 14:27	28%	5%	1.1%	71%
AS 1067 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:19	HNL 12:20	29%	4%	1.1%	67%
AS 1137 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:02	HNL 17:49	29%	5%	1.2%	74%
AS 1147 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:45	HNL 18:32	30%	5%	1.0%	75%
AS 1157 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 18:30	HNL 19:17	30%	5%	1.1%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON