Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2227 Southwest	KOA 20:35	LAS 05:08	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	3h 34m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	10h 21m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 08m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 39m	94%	69%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	1h 12m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406	8h 15m	89%	67%
United Details →	KOA 13:05 → LAX 21:34UA 2372	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → LAS 23:46UA 1546	7h 41m	88%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON