Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 486 KOA 22:03 → LAX 06:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 561 KOA 14:17 → LAX 22:28 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 486 Delta Flight history →	KOA 22:03	LAX 06:25	11%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	KOA 13:05	LAX 21:34	12%	4%	0.7%	91%
AA 58 American Flight history →	KOA 15:36	LAX 23:59	18%	6%	0.7%	85%
AS 561 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:17	LAX 22:28	20%	4%	0.7%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	1h 13m Honolulu	HNL 08:00 → LAX 16:20AS 810	7h 20m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 18:30 → HNL 19:17AS 1157	1h 25m Honolulu	HNL 20:42 → LAX 05:11 +1AS 804	7h 41m	88%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	1h 32m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 16m	96%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON