Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 1029 at 08:26, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 1029 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 08:26	LIH 09:39	7%	2%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 06:00 → HNL 06:47AS 1017	3h 03m Honolulu	HNL 09:50 → LIH 10:44AS 1053	4h 44m	100%	85%
Alaska Details →	KOA 16:33 → HNL 17:20AS 1127	4h 00m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → LIH 22:14AS 1183	5h 41m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 14:41 → HNL 15:43AS 1107	3h 50m Honolulu	HNL 19:33 → LIH 20:27AS 1173	5h 46m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 15:17 → HNL 16:19AS 1117	2h 27m Honolulu	HNL 18:46 → LIH 19:40AS 1163	4h 23m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:27 → HNL 08:29AS 1027	2h 08m Honolulu	HNL 10:37 → LIH 11:31AS 1063	4h 04m	99%	78%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:13 → HNL 13:15AS 1087	3h 59m Honolulu	HNL 17:14 → LIH 18:08AS 1143	5h 55m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 21m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	3h 47m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:46 → HNL 12:48AS 1077	3h 44m Honolulu	HNL 16:32 → LIH 17:26AS 1133	5h 40m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	KOA 13:26 → HNL 14:28AS 1097	49m Honolulu	HNL 15:17 → LIH 16:11AS 1113	2h 45m	46%	33%
Alaska Details →	KOA 11:19 → HNL 12:21AS 1067	48m Honolulu	HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:03AS 1083	2h 44m	47%	32%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	46m Honolulu	HNL 10:37 → LIH 11:31AS 1063	2h 42m	37%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON