Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 253 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 11:58	PDX 20:35	14%	3%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 19m Kahului	OGG 11:14 → PDX 19:54AS 890	7h 35m	94%	80%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:26 → LIH 09:39AS 1029	2h 42m Lihue	LIH 12:21 → PDX 21:14AS 901	9h 48m	99%	79%
Alaska Details →	KOA 19:15 → HNL 20:03AS 1167	3h 41m Honolulu	HNL 23:44 → PDX 08:36 +1AS 879	10h 21m	100%	79%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	2h 30m San Francisco	SFO 22:33 → PDX 00:23 +1UA 8182	9h 28m	98%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	2h 31m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 01m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	57m San Diego	SAN 19:59 → PDX 22:34AS 794	8h 57m	80%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	47m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	7h 53m	71%	55%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:28 → HNL 11:30AS 1057	52m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	7h 22m	52%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON