Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 11:55, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 664 American Flight history →	KOA 21:45	PHX 06:35	8%	5%	0.8%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 07:27 → HNL 08:29AS 1027	3h 21m Honolulu	HNL 11:50 → PHX 20:48AS 836	10h 21m	100%	77%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	59m San Francisco	SFO 21:02 → PHX 23:01UA 1653	8h 06m	83%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON