Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Lihue, leaving 08:26, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 266 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 10:37	SAN 19:02	19%	4%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	2h 27m Kahului	OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43AS 203	8h 24m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	KOA 17:45 → HNL 18:32AS 1147	3h 27m Honolulu	HNL 21:59 → SAN 06:29 +1AS 93	9h 44m	99%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:26 → LIH 09:39AS 1029	1h 07m Lihue	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	7h 58m	95%	71%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	1h 18m San Francisco	SFO 21:21 → SAN 23:13UA 442	8h 18m	91%	68%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	2h 48m Honolulu	HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07AS 816	9h 18m	100%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON