Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 485 at 20:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 485 KOA 20:55 → SEA 06:00 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 735 KOA 11:57 → SEA 20:52 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 485 Delta Flight history →	KOA 20:55	SEA 06:00	12%	6%	1.1%	93%
AS 259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 22:22	SEA 07:26	16%	5%	1.1%	91%
AS 735 Alaska	KOA 11:57	SEA 20:52	22%	6%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149	1h 47m Kahului	OGG 15:15 → SEA 23:59AS 244	8h 08m	97%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 19:15 → HNL 20:03AS 1167	1h 28m Honolulu	HNL 21:31 → SEA 06:32 +1AS 854	8h 17m	94%	70%
Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	1h 12m Honolulu	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267	8h 06m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON