Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1724 at 22:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1724 KOA 22:50 → SFO 07:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 404 KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1724 United Flight history →	KOA 22:50	SFO 07:00	6%	5%	0.8%	97%
UA 1722 United Flight history →	KOA 11:55	SFO 20:03	16%	6%	0.8%	81%
AS 404 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:40	SFO 23:48	26%	8%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	1h 03m Kahului	OGG 10:58 → SFO 18:51AS 978	6h 32m	87%	73%
Alaska Details →	KOA 12:13 → HNL 13:14AS 1087	1h 35m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → SFO 22:51AS 812	7h 38m	93%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON