Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 09:19, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 09:19 → OGG 09:55AS 1039	3h 28m Kahului	OGG 13:23 → SJC 21:25AS 954	9h 06m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	KOA 07:27 → HNL 08:29AS 1027	3h 21m Honolulu	HNL 11:50 → SJC 20:04AS 839	9h 36m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	2h 10m San Diego	SAN 21:12 → SJC 22:43AS 1308	9h 06m	95%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON