Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 11:55, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2230 Southwest	KOA 10:00	SMF 18:09	8%	3%	0.4%	no record
AS 843 Alaska	KOA 13:47	SMF 22:08	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 08:49 → HNL 09:51AS 1037	2h 20m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:19AS 820	8h 30m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	1h 37m San Diego	SAN 20:39 → SMF 22:20AS 428	8h 43m	93%	69%
United Details →	KOA 11:55 → SFO 20:03UA 1722	52m San Francisco	SFO 20:55 → SMF 21:55UA 1862	7h 00m	77%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON