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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 53 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1403 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1403 LAX 06:00 → EWR 14:37 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2459 SNA 12:47 → JFK 21:06 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

UA 1403 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 EWR 14:37 10% 4% 1.2% 92%
DL 556 Delta Flight history → SNA 21:00 JFK 05:27 12% 4% 3.4% 89%
UA 2743 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 EWR 15:37 12% 5% 1.2% 94%
UA 2186 United Flight history → SNA 21:15 EWR 05:33 12% 5% 2.4% 90%
DL 979 Delta Flight history → LAX 06:21 JFK 14:26 13% 5% 1.8% 90%
UA 661 United Flight history → SNA 06:45 EWR 15:21 13% 5% 1.4% 91%
AA 118 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 JFK 14:37 16% 7% 2.3% 85%
AA 2 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 JFK 15:39 16% 6% 2.0% 86%
DL 960 Delta Flight history → LAX 21:00 JFK 05:16 17% 7% 1.9% 86%
DL 915 Delta Flight history → LAX 00:12 JFK 08:15 18% 4% 1.1% 86%
DL 938 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:41 JFK 15:46 19% 6% 1.7% 79%
AA 10 American Flight history → LAX 21:27 JFK 06:03 20% 9% 2.1% 85%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:04 EWR 15:04 20% 7% 1.7% 90%
UA 2096 United Flight history → LAX 08:20 EWR 16:45 24% 10% 1.2% 83%
UA 2397 United Flight history → LAX 21:00 EWR 05:18 24% 7% 1.7% 88%worse than usual
DL 676 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:45 JFK 07:03 24% 6% 2.0% 81%
B6 454 JetBlue Flight history → ONT 22:39 JFK 06:52 24% 7% 2.4% 72%
UA 576 United LAX 22:04 EWR 06:41 24% 7% 1.6% no record
AA 307 American Flight history → LAX 07:52 JFK 16:22 24% 9% 2.1% 76%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 00:00 JFK 08:22 25% 5% 1.5% 68%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 08:03 JFK 16:27 25% 8% 1.9% 80%
B6 1524 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:30 JFK 05:01 26% 12% 2.3% 83%
UA 1700 United Flight history → LAX 16:10 EWR 00:44 27% 11% 1.2% 84%worse than usual
AA 30 American Flight history → LAX 23:12 JFK 07:36 28% 9% 2.0% 70%
UA 2303 United Flight history → LAX 23:15 EWR 07:30 28% 8% 1.3% 77%
DL 934 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:04 JFK 17:05 29% 10% 1.7% 89%worse than usual
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 20:33 EWR 05:00 29% 11% 2.2% 83%worse than usual
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 08:56 JFK 17:13 30% 11% 1.8% 93%worse than usual
DL 991 Delta Flight history → LAX 15:29 JFK 23:35 30% 15% 1.9% 78%
DL 972 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:15 JFK 20:02 30% 19% 1.6% 67%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 15:20 JFK 23:57 31% 16% 1.9% 81%worse than usual
B6 1024 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 22:25 JFK 07:00 31% 11% 2.5% 82%worse than usual
DL 958 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:56 JFK 18:02 31% 13% 1.9% 83%worse than usual
B6 359 JetBlue Flight history → BUR 21:25 JFK 05:59 33% 13% 3.7% 72%
AA 28 American Flight history → LAX 15:15 JFK 23:54 33% 18% 2.2% 79%worse than usual
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 12:28 JFK 21:00 34% 18% 1.8% 77%worse than usual
DL 951 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:15 JFK 21:20 35% 22% 1.9% 74%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 13:54 JFK 22:16 35% 19% 1.7% 71%
AA 238 American Flight history → LAX 10:11 JFK 18:52 36% 21% 2.2% 71%
DL 939 Delta Flight history → LAX 12:24 JFK 20:24 36% 19% 1.6% 73%
UA 2127 United Flight history → LAX 10:20 EWR 19:04 37% 19% 1.3% 72%
AA 32 American Flight history → LAX 11:32 JFK 19:59 37% 25% 1.8% 74%worse than usual
AA 4 American Flight history → LAX 13:27 JFK 21:56 37% 24% 2.1% 76%worse than usual
AA 274 American Flight history → LAX 11:55 JFK 20:36 37% 24% 1.9% 60%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 10:17 JFK 18:36 38% 17% 1.9% 80%worse than usual
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 11:21 JFK 19:44 38% 18% 1.8% 82%worse than usual
UA 1950 United Flight history → LAX 13:42 EWR 22:12 38% 20% 1.3% 61%
UA 1150 United LAX 14:45 EWR 22:58 39% 18% 1.3% no record
B6 1874 JetBlue Flight history → LAX 10:55 EWR 19:28 40% 19% 1.4% 67%
UA 1559 United Flight history → SNA 12:29 EWR 20:56 40% 27% 2.0% 64%
UA 1855 United Flight history → LAX 12:26 EWR 20:38 41% 24% 1.4% 62%
UA 1981 United Flight history → LAX 11:15 EWR 19:30 41% 22% 1.4% 72%worse than usual
AA 2459 American Flight history → SNA 12:47 JFK 21:06 44% 24% 2.8% 73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:27 → SLC 09:19DL 2708 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 22m 95% 62%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:04 → DFW 05:20AA 2490 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 06:13 → LGA 10:27AA 2925 7h 23m 79% 60%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:31 → PHX 20:57AA 1666 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156 7h 29m 80% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON