Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1016 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1016 LAX 05:00 → BWI 12:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1016 Southwest	LAX 05:00	BWI 12:56	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	13%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:33	IAD 05:48	14%	4%	0.7%	89%
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 08:40	BWI 16:55	14%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 1605 United Flight history →	LAX 22:36	BWI 06:39	15%	5%	0.7%	91%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	16%	4%	1.0%	81%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 22:24	IAD 06:27	16%	4%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:28	IAD 07:21	16%	4%	0.7%	93%
UA 1506 United	LAX 16:42	IAD 00:58	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 688 United	SNA 08:24	IAD 16:39	17%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	17%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:29	IAD 21:43	19%	6%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
AA 3071 American	LAX 21:48	IAD 05:47	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3202 American	LAX 08:37	DCA 16:47	23%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 1246 Southwest	LAX 21:49	BWI 05:50	24%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4276 Southwest	LAX 13:39	BWI 21:35	30%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 13:39	DCA 21:42	31%	11%	0.9%	78%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	34%	8%	1.0%	78%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	LAX 01:12 → DTW 08:34DL 407	1h 26m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	7h 16m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:27 → SLC 09:19DL 2708	1h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 08m	95%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON