Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Portland, leaving 08:19, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 15% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 08:19 → PDX 10:37AS 596	3h 53m Portland	PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:16AS 1406	9h 57m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 15:33 → SEA 18:03DL 2880	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 21:46 → ANC 00:35 +1DL 936	10h 02m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	LAS 12:31 → SEA 15:08DL 2922	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 17:27 → ANC 20:10DL 2367	8h 39m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:10 → SEA 08:45DL 2844	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 11:08 → ANC 13:52DL 922	8h 42m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAS 17:05 → SEA 19:34AS 749	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:33 +1AS 703	9h 28m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:33 → MSP 14:41DL 2261	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377	12h 27m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756	1h 17m Portland	PDX 17:46 → ANC 20:32AS 1455	7h 24m	85%	69%
Alaska Details →	LAS 12:26 → SEA 14:39AS 785	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 18:01 → ANC 20:43AS 1408	9h 17m	97%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	LAS 10:03 → SEA 12:14AS 676	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:52AS 1381	6h 49m	64%	42%
Alaska Details →	LAS 19:27 → SEA 21:49AS 552	1h 01m Seattle	SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:33 +1AS 703	7h 06m	59%	41%
Alaska Details →	LAS 15:52 → SEA 18:11AS 629	50m Seattle	SEA 19:01 → ANC 21:43AS 582	6h 51m	15%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON