Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1286 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 1286 LAS 05:02 → AUS 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2444 LAS 17:25 → AUS 22:08 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1286 Southwest	LAS 05:02	AUS 09:45	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1651 Southwest	LAS 07:24	AUS 12:07	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2240 Southwest	LAS 08:25	AUS 13:10	18%	2%	0.8%	no record
F9 4684 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 06:25	AUS 11:21	20%	5%	1.2%	77%
WN 4642 Southwest	LAS 20:54	AUS 01:37	25%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4357 Southwest	LAS 19:49	AUS 00:32	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4267 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:21	AUS 17:02	30%	5%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 4532 Southwest	LAS 16:49	AUS 21:30	31%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 410 Southwest	LAS 15:02	AUS 19:46	32%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 2444 Delta	LAS 17:25	AUS 22:08	32%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON