tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4360 Southwest LAS 09:24 DCA 16:51 27% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 1525 American LAS 12:11 DCA 19:49 37% 10% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 00:58 → IAH 06:17UA 2009 1h 24m Houston IAH 07:41 → DCA 11:43UA 512 7h 45m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 7h 54m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:43 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958 7h 17m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 08:48 → DCA 17:14UA 1678 8h 14m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820 7h 35m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 58m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 6h 29m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 9h 11m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → LAS 00:11 → ORD 06:07AA 3077 3h 18m Chicago ORD 09:25 → DCA 12:31AA 315 9h 20m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:42 → ORD 18:26UA 314 1h 19m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 7h 12m 72% 48%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:31 → MSP 18:42DL 2238 50m Minneapolis MSP 19:32 → DCA 23:04DL 1897 6h 33m 61% 43%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 57m 61% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON