tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 2874 at 14:24, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2874 Southwest LAS 14:24 ICT 18:55 36% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wichita is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → ICT 12:23DL 828 9h 50m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → LAS 06:04 → DFW 11:03AA 2932 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → ICT 13:49AA 3479 · flown by Envoy 5h 45m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:26 → ICT 23:53AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 7h 51m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 21:18 → ICT 22:40DL 2959 8h 59m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282 2h 08m Minneapolis MSP 13:30 → ICT 15:10DL 3807 · flown by SkyWest 6h 51m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → LAS 07:05 → ATL 14:05DL 677 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 17:19 → ICT 18:38DL 2128 9h 33m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → LAS 09:37 → DEN 12:41UA 1315 1h 18m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 88% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 54m Atlanta ATL 21:18 → ICT 22:40DL 2959 7h 28m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON