Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 510 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 510 LAS 07:05 → JFK 15:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 348 LAS 14:20 → JFK 22:12 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 510 Delta Flight history →	LAS 07:05	JFK 15:17	11%	4%	1.8%	96%
B6 2348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 05:59	JFK 13:52	16%	4%	2.2%	81%
DL 1159 Delta	LAS 23:41	JFK 07:25	16%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 1356 American	LAS 23:06	JFK 06:54	22%	6%	2.9%	no record
DL 333 Delta Flight history →	LAS 10:10	JFK 17:52	30%	9%	1.8%	85%worse than usual
AA 1890 American	LAS 09:07	JFK 17:14	36%	11%	2.9%	no record
B6 948 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 22:54	JFK 06:47	36%	13%	2.4%	72%
DL 795 Delta Flight history →	LAS 12:10	JFK 20:39	37%	14%	1.7%	78%worse than usual
DL 1102 Delta	LAS 15:38	JFK 23:20	38%	15%	1.9%	no record
B6 1448 JetBlue	LAS 11:14	JFK 19:06	41%	15%	1.8%	no record
AA 1175 American	LAS 12:58	JFK 21:08	45%	22%	3.0%	no record
B6 248 JetBlue	LAS 15:52	JFK 23:44	47%	23%	2.1%	no record
B6 348 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:20	JFK 22:12	48%	24%	2.0%	73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:43 → MSP 05:51DL 2834	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969	6h 56m	87%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 09:59 → DTW 16:58DL 470	59m Detroit	DTW 17:57 → JFK 19:36DL 1316	6h 37m	82%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON