tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4310 Southwest LAS 09:25 KOA 12:47 16% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 09:08 → KOA 11:50UA 2373 8h 50m 98% 86%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 3h 52m Honolulu HNL 09:08 → KOA 10:10AS 1068 11h 15m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 43m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 07m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → LAS 13:34 → SFO 15:16UA 1799 3h 44m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → KOA 21:43UA 1723 11h 09m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 12:45 → LAX 13:58DL 1696 2h 46m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 9h 32m 95% 77%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 07:05 → OGG 10:12AS 931 3h 51m Kahului OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140 10h 34m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807 2h 57m Honolulu HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:29AS 9950 10h 24m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → LAS 07:23 → LAX 08:40AA 2690 3h 59m Los Angeles LAX 12:39 → KOA 15:32AA 59 11h 09m 97% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON