tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4463 Southwest LAS 09:17 LIH 12:41 21% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817 3h 56m Honolulu HNL 09:12 → LIH 10:06AS 1043 11h 11m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643 1h 13m San Francisco SFO 08:48 → LIH 11:43UA 1111 8h 43m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 11h 12m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039 1h 31m Los Angeles LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295 8h 44m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAS 09:47 → LAX 11:01DL 2253 3h 44m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 10h 54m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 3h 28m Denver DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307 13h 07m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:09 → SEA 14:00DL 2922 1h 50m Seattle SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345 10h 49m 95% 74%
AlaskaDetails → LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807 3h 45m Honolulu HNL 17:14 → LIH 18:08AS 1143 11h 03m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LAS 12:45 → LAX 13:58DL 1696 47m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 7h 56m 57% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON