tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 35–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2339 Southwest LAS 14:19 MEM 19:35 35% 8% 1.0% no record
G4 74 Allegiant LAS 15:30 MEM 20:50 36% 10% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:43 → MSP 05:51DL 2834 3h 19m Minneapolis MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest 8h 45m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937 7h 59m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596 2h 12m Denver DEN 10:44 → MEM 14:06UA 2789 6h 36m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → LAS 09:27 → DFW 14:22AA 2797 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:46 → MEM 19:28AA 3932 · flown by Envoy 8h 01m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:59DL 2939 8h 18m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → MEM 23:24DL 2501 8h 12m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → LAS 13:08 → LAX 14:24DL 1696 3h 50m Los Angeles LAX 18:14 → MEM 23:59DL 1080 8h 51m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → LAS 11:41 → ATL 18:47DL 748 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 21:49 → MEM 22:12DL 1577 8h 31m 98% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAS 12:20 → CLT 19:36AA 2981 1h 08m Charlotte CLT 20:44 → MEM 21:38AA 1641 7h 18m 74% 46%
UnitedDetails → LAS 12:35 → EWR 20:40UA 1731 1h 19m Newark EWR 21:59 → MEM 00:10 +1UA 3563 · flown by Republic 9h 35m 70% 44%
UnitedDetails → LAS 14:25 → ORD 20:23UA 706 57m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 56m 49% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON