Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 11% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 931 Alaska Flight history →	LAS 07:05	OGG 10:12	19%	4%	0.8%	81%
WN 2354 Southwest	LAS 09:20	OGG 12:35	19%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	LAS 01:55 → HNL 05:16AS 817	2h 46m Honolulu	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	9h 48m	98%	83%
United Details →	LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574	3h 28m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	10h 47m	98%	83%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → LAX 07:14UA 2039	1h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 09:00 → OGG 11:46UA 417	8h 46m	98%	83%
United Details →	LAS 05:30 → DEN 08:32UA 596	3h 28m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	12h 35m	100%	83%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643	2h 30m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573	9h 34m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:18 → LAX 07:32DL 553	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	7h 49m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	3h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	LAS 10:05 → HNL 13:29AS 807	3h 14m Honolulu	HNL 16:43 → OGG 17:24AS 1156	10h 19m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 11:30 → SFO 13:12UA 574	53m San Francisco	SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623	8h 06m	66%	54%
Alaska Details →	LAS 06:59 → SEA 09:28AS 701	47m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	9h 20m	11%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON